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The Organiser

7yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 57

Brighton · JenningsBet 'We Love Brighton Racecourse' 'Confined' Handicap · 6f 210y

#3

Rank

Odds

11/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#3

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Successful twice last year, including over 6f here for this yard. Ran well back on turf this season when second at Lingfield (7f) in May and needed a stronger gallop when mid-field at the same venue (all-weather) 23 days ago. One to note from his current mark.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readWELL IN
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength73%

What the class read says

Strong hidden class form — has met tougher company than today and the bare form doesn't fully capture it. Should find this level easier. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 6 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 6.9)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Brighton 15/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 64 · 5f215y Sft 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/09/2025 · OR 64 par15/095OR 645 @ Leicester 07/10/2025 · Pos 13th of 14 · OR 65 · 6f GS 133 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark07/10/2025 · OR 65 par6 @ Lingfield 20/11/2025 · Pos 14th of 14 · OR 65 · 7f1y Std 138 · below its mark20/11/2025 · OR 65 par20/116OR 654 @ Lingfield 08/12/2025 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 64 · 6f1y Std 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/12/2025 · OR 64 par6 @ Lingfield 07/01/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 63 · 6f1y Std 133 · below its mark07/01/2026 · OR 63 par7/016OR 636 @ Chelmsford City 26/03/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 61 · 7f Std 131 · beat its mark26/03/2026 · OR 61 par6 @ Lingfield 19/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 59 · 7f Goo 131 · beat its mark19/05/2026 · OR 59 par19/056OR 596 @ Chepstow 15/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 59 · 7f16y Gd 134 · beat its mark15/06/2026 · OR 59 par6 @ Lingfield 13/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 58 · 7f2y Std 128 · beat its mark13/07/2026 · OR 58 par13/076OR 58projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-13Lingfield65th5th0
2026-06-15Chepstow64th4th0
2026-05-19Lingfield62nd2nd0
2026-03-26Chelmsford City67th7th0
2026-01-07Lingfield66th6th0
2025-12-08Lingfield44th2nd+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/098/1219/0513/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength60%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 9.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/09/20251st6/168%100%+0.32
07/10/202513th20/10%8%+0.08
20/11/202514th20/10%0%0.00
08/12/20254th50/10%67%+0.67
07/01/20266th9/153%17%-0.36
26/03/20267th33/10%40%+0.40
19/05/20262nd14/126%89%+0.63
15/06/20264th8/158%50%-0.08
13/07/20265th11/142%56%+0.13