Dream On Cara
6yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 67
Finger Lakes · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | Saratoga | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-06-09 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-06-01 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-05 | Aqueduct | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-01-11 | Aqueduct | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/08/2025 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 21/11/2025 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 11/12/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 71% | -0.05 |
| 11/01/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 05/02/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 01/06/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |
| 09/06/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 10/07/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 21/07/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |