5
Rachel's Rock
7yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 83
Finger Lakes · Race 1 - Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
7/4
Win Prob
96%
Place Prob
77%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength38%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Aqueduct | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-28 | Aqueduct | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-01-23 | Aqueduct | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-05-02 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength78%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/01/2025 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 80% | -0.06 |
| 06/02/2025 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 50% | -0.40 |
| 18/04/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 02/05/2025 | 7th | 9/4 | 88% | 14% | -0.74 |
| 23/01/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 63% | -0.19 |
| 28/03/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 43% | -0.05 |
| 26/04/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |
| 15/06/2026 | 1st | 2/9 | 99% | 100% | +0.01 |
| 22/07/2026 | 3rd | 7/4 | 91% | 60% | -0.31 |