4
Lipan Law
4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 76
Finger Lakes · Race 2 - Allowance · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
6/5
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
13%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 3.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-07-08 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-08 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-12-26 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 9th | 12th | −3 |
| 2025-11-28 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 5th | 8th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength84%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/08/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 16/09/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 08/10/2025 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |
| 28/11/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 26/12/2025 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 27% | +0.11 |
| 25/05/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 40% | -0.28 |
| 08/06/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |
| 08/07/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 22/07/2026 | 2nd | 6/5 | 94% | 75% | -0.19 |