6
Lonchura
5yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 59
Finger Lakes · Race 2 - Allowance · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength16%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Aqueduct | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-02-12 | Aqueduct | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-01-17 | Aqueduct | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-03-28 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2025-02-28 | Aqueduct | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 6
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength64%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07/2024 | 11th | 40/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 20/10/2024 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 22/11/2024 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 28/02/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 28/03/2025 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 17/01/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 12/02/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 18/04/2026 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 14/07/2026 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |