3
Moonlight Gal
4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 69
Finger Lakes · Race 2 - Allowance · 1m
#6
Rank
Odds
9/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲3
Strength4%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.7
Today:
Class gap: -2.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-21 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-05-08 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-04-10 | Aqueduct | ? | 7th | 10th | −3 |
| 2026-03-14 | Aqueduct | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-01-16 | Aqueduct | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2025-02-07 | Aqueduct | ? | 1st | 5th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength94%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10/2024 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 71% | -0.10 |
| 02/11/2024 | 10th | 10/1 | 47% | 18% | -0.29 |
| 08/01/2025 | 8th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 07/02/2025 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 16/01/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 60% | +0.13 |
| 14/03/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 10/04/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 08/05/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 86% | +0.38 |
| 21/06/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |