4
Constant Chaos
3yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 76
Finger Lakes · Race 3 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.7 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.6
Today:
Class gap: -1.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Saratoga | ? | 8th | 10th | −2 |
| 2026-06-27 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-05-25 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2025-09-24 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-08-30 | Saratoga | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2025-08-08 | Saratoga | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 5
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength3%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08/2025 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 30/08/2025 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 24/09/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 25/05/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |
| 27/06/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 63% | +0.10 |
| 18/07/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |