2
Hoity Moroni
3yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 70
Finger Lakes · Race 3 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
13/2
Win Prob
82%
Place Prob
57%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.5 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.9
Today:
Class gap: -1.9
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-11 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 5th | −4 |
| 2026-04-27 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-02-11 | Aqueduct | ? | 9th | 13th | −4 |
| 2026-01-09 | Aqueduct | ? | 5th | 9th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 5
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength55%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 5.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/09/2025 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 60% | -0.26 |
| 11/10/2025 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 20/11/2025 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 09/01/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 33% | -0.32 |
| 11/02/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 27/04/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 11/05/2026 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 02/06/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 71% | +0.00 |
| 30/06/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 80% | +0.14 |