5
Magic Beach
5yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 66
Finger Lakes · Race 3 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
14%
Place Prob
23%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-22 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-08 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-11 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-11-10 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-10-27 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 5
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength3%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 3rd of 5.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/09/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 57% | +0.20 |
| 29/09/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 83% | +0.10 |
| 13/10/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |
| 27/10/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 60% | -0.19 |
| 10/11/2025 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 11/05/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 60% | -0.19 |
| 27/05/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 20% | -0.06 |
| 08/06/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 22/06/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |