5
Bayou Melody
7yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 69
Finger Lakes · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
86%
Place Prob
58%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-12 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-27 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-21 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength85%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/01/2026 | 8th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 12/02/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 25/02/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 33% | -0.38 |
| 21/03/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 40% | -0.39 |
| 27/04/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 80% | -0.11 |
| 12/05/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 86% | +0.23 |
| 03/06/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 29/06/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 14/07/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 60% | +0.13 |