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6

Follow Your Arrow

5yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 73

Finger Lakes · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f

#3

Rank

Odds

5/6

Win Prob

2%

Place Prob

9%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength46%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 4.1)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.9
Today:
Class gap: +0.6
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Aqueduct 06/02/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 86 · 7f Slo 123 · beat its mark06/02/2025 · OR 86 par6/02C8OR 86C7 @ Aqueduct 09/03/2025 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 89 · 6f110y Fas 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark09/03/2025 · OR 89 parC8 @ Belmont At The Big A 27/06/2025 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 82 · 6f110y Fas 123 · below its mark27/06/2025 · OR 82 par27/06C8OR 82C8 @ Saratoga 06/08/2025 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 78 · 7f 124 · below its mark06/08/2025 · OR 78 parC5 @ Finger Lakes 16/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 73 · 5f110y 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark16/09/2025 · OR 73 par16/09C5OR 73C7 @ Finger Lakes 30/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 72 · 6f 124 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark30/09/2025 · OR 72 parC8 @ Finger Lakes 27/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 73 · 6f 124 · below its mark27/10/2025 · OR 73 par27/10C8OR 73C8 @ Finger Lakes 05/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 74 · 5f 122 · below its mark05/05/2026 · OR 74 parC8 @ Finger Lakes 03/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 72 · 5f110y 122 · below its mark03/06/2026 · OR 72 par3/06C8OR 72projClass-projected finish: 4th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-03Finger Lakes?2nd2nd0
2026-05-05Finger Lakes?2nd2nd0
2025-10-27Finger Lakes?4th4th0
2025-09-30Finger Lakes?5th4th+1
2025-09-16Finger Lakes?1st-2th+3
2025-08-06Saratoga?5th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/026/0827/103/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 8
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength56%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/02/20251st2/189%100%+0.11
09/03/20255th10/147%20%-0.27
27/06/20258th25/10%22%+0.22
06/08/20255th8/158%33%-0.25
16/09/20251st11/1094%100%+0.06
30/09/20255th6/594%20%-0.74
27/10/20254th1/297%40%-0.57
05/05/20262nd8/1397%80%-0.17
03/06/20262nd5/696%88%-0.08