2
Big Ego
5yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 51
Finger Lakes · Race 5 - Maiden Special Weight · 5f 110y
#8
Rank
Odds
10/3
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength8%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 8.3 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.1
Today:
Class gap: -2.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-23 | Finger Lakes | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-08-19 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2025-07-19 | Saratoga | ? | 9th | 12th | −3 |
| 2025-05-25 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 7th | 10th | −3 |
| 2025-04-17 | Aqueduct | ? | 6th | 9th | −3 |
| 2025-03-21 | Aqueduct | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 10
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength37%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/12/2024 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 02/02/2025 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 83% | +0.15 |
| 28/02/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 86% | +0.09 |
| 21/03/2025 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 50% | -0.36 |
| 17/04/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 29% | -0.08 |
| 25/05/2025 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 33% | -0.19 |
| 19/07/2025 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 19/08/2025 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 80% | -0.10 |
| 23/09/2025 | 7th | 10/3 | 82% | 14% | -0.68 |