4
Asleep At Eight
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 88
Finger Lakes · Race 6 - Allowance · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength4%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | Aqueduct | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-03-13 | Aqueduct | ? | 5th | 8th | −3 |
| 2026-01-22 | Aqueduct | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2025-11-13 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-29 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-06 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 9
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength56%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/06/2025 | 7th | 5/4 | 93% | 14% | -0.79 |
| 20/08/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |
| 16/09/2025 | 1st | 4/11 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 06/10/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 29/10/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |
| 13/11/2025 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 60% | -0.30 |
| 22/01/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 13/03/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 11/04/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 33% | -0.38 |