2
Muscle Shoals
3yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 78
Finger Lakes · Race 6 - Allowance · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
6/4
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 2.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-11-10 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2025-11-03 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 9
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/11/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 10/11/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 08/07/2026 | 6th | 6/4 | 92% | 0% | -0.92 |