1
Price Is Truth
5yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 84
Finger Lakes · Race 6 - Allowance · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength25%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-11-13 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-21 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-10-06 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-09-14 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-08-27 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 9
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength49%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07/2025 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 23/07/2025 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 83% | +0.18 |
| 05/08/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 27/08/2025 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 60% | -0.28 |
| 14/09/2025 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 06/10/2025 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 40% | -0.36 |
| 21/10/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 13/11/2025 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 20% | -0.56 |
| 08/07/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 80% | +0.12 |