6
Vino's Valentine
4yo Colt · 8-12 · OR 73
Finger Lakes · Race 6 - Allowance · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength14%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 2.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-08 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-22 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 6th | 9th | −3 |
| 2026-04-10 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 5th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/02/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 63% | -0.06 |
| 05/03/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 78% | +0.62 |
| 18/03/2026 | 4th | 8/11 | 96% | 50% | -0.46 |
| 10/04/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 22/04/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 29% | -0.42 |
| 27/05/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 40% | -0.18 |
| 08/06/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 75% | -0.14 |
| 23/06/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 88% | +0.88 |
| 14/07/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |