4
East Coast Girl
6yo Horse · 8-12 · OR 92
Finger Lakes · Race 7 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
11/4
Win Prob
13%
Place Prob
17%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength14%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-01 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-11 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-12-07 | Aqueduct | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2025-11-25 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-10-29 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 8
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength47%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/01/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 02/09/2025 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 15/10/2025 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 29/10/2025 | 1st | 4/9 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 25/11/2025 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 07/12/2025 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 11/05/2026 | 2nd | 8/11 | 96% | 80% | -0.16 |
| 01/06/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 25% | -0.46 |
| 30/06/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |