Concho's Prayer
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 73
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 1 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
9/4
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 4.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-29 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-04-08 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2025-11-12 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/08/2025 | 10th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 24/09/2025 | 5th | 1/1 | 95% | 43% | -0.52 |
| 14/10/2025 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 63% | -0.14 |
| 12/11/2025 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 22% | -0.15 |
| 08/04/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 57% | -0.27 |
| 29/04/2026 | 4th | 1/1 | 95% | 25% | -0.70 |
| 13/05/2026 | 4th | 5/6 | 96% | 25% | -0.71 |
| 09/06/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 33% | -0.46 |
| 30/06/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 83% | -0.05 |