Rioja Alta

3yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 74

Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 1 - Claiming · 5f 110y

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

95%

Place Prob

71%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark

Move▼1

Strength62%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 4.6)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.3

Today:

Class gap: +1.2

Higher-class runs: 4

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-07-27	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	7th	4th	+3	6.0
2026-06-16	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	1st	2nd	−1	7.8
2026-05-25	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	2nd	0th	+2	9.8
2026-05-11	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	7th	5th	+2	4.8
2026-04-22	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	6th	4th	+2	5.8

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish3rd of 10

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▲

Strength36%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
22/04/2026	6th	13/8	91%	50%	-0.41
11/05/2026	7th	9/2	76%	25%	-0.51
25/05/2026	2nd	10/3	82%	89%	+0.06
16/06/2026	1st	8/15	97%	100%	+0.03
27/07/2026	7th	20/1	0%	14%	+0.14