Sombeyay King
3yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 57
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 1 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 5.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-22 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-07 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2025-11-06 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-09-30 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 8th | 6th | +2 |
| 2025-09-02 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/09/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 30/09/2025 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 06/11/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 07/04/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 22/06/2026 | 8th | 3/1 | 84% | 13% | -0.72 |