Lucky Lollipop

2yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 59

Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 3 - Maiden Claiming · 7f 110y

Rank

Odds

9/4

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼2

Strength69%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 5.7)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.8

Today:

Class gap: +1.7

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-07-16	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	8th	8th	0	2.0
2026-06-11	Churchill Downs	?	6th	3rd	+3	7.0
2026-05-14	Churchill Downs	?	3rd	0th	+3	5.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish8th of 14

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▼

Strength0%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 14. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
14/05/2026	3rd	12/1	37%	67%	+0.30
11/06/2026	6th	16/1	16%	29%	+0.13
16/07/2026	8th	9/4	88%	0%	-0.88