Kramer

3yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 46

Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 4 - Maiden Claiming · 1m

Rank

Odds

20/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark

Move▼2

Strength73%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 6.5)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.6

Today:

Class gap: +1.9

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-07-04	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	5th	2nd	+3	8.0
2026-06-11	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2026-05-25	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	9th	6th	+3	4.0
2026-04-08	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	9th	6th	+3	4.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish4th of 10

▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price

Trend▲

Strength74%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 10. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
08/04/2026	9th	9/1	53%	20%	-0.33
25/05/2026	9th	33/1	0%	11%	+0.11
11/06/2026	3rd	40/1	0%	75%	+0.75
04/07/2026	5th	20/1	0%	20%	+0.20