Bout Tree Fiddy

4yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 72

Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 8 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m

#13

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

#13

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▬

Strength53%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 5.7)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C5.8

Today:

Class gap: +0.7

Higher-class runs: 4

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-07-28	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	6th	7th	−1	2.8
2026-06-17	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	7th	5th	+2	4.8
2026-06-04	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	7th	5th	+2	4.8
2025-11-12	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	11th	9th	+2	1.0
2025-11-04	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	7th	8th	−1	1.8
2025-08-27	Horseshoe Indianapolis	?	3rd	1st	+2	8.8

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish14th of 15

▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price

Trend▼

Strength0%

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 14th of 15. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
25/06/2025	7th	16/1	16%	14%	-0.02
10/07/2025	3rd	20/1	0%	71%	+0.71
07/08/2025	2nd	7/1	63%	88%	+0.24
27/08/2025	3rd	11/4	86%	78%	-0.08
04/11/2025	7th	40/1	0%	45%	+0.45
12/11/2025	11th	12/1	37%	0%	-0.37
04/06/2026	7th	12/1	37%	33%	-0.04
17/06/2026	7th	16/1	16%	0%	-0.16
28/07/2026	6th	25/1	0%	38%	+0.38