10
Count Of Amazonia
9yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 90
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 8 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength35%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 6 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-06 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-18 | Turfway Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-03-01 | Turfway Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-01-23 | Turfway Park | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2025-12-19 | Turfway Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 15
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength57%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 15. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/06/2025 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 29% | -0.35 |
| 03/07/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 83% | +0.04 |
| 05/11/2025 | 2nd | 6/5 | 94% | 91% | -0.03 |
| 19/12/2025 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 89% | +0.20 |
| 23/01/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 55% | +0.18 |
| 01/03/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 18/03/2026 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 80% | -0.12 |
| 09/06/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 75% | -0.13 |
| 06/07/2026 | 7th | 7/2 | 82% | 14% | -0.67 |