9
Elevated Game
5yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 75
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 8 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m
#12
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength12%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-16 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-10-16 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2025-09-25 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2025-09-04 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-08-18 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-07-02 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 15
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength50%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 11th of 15.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/02/2025 | 9th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 06/04/2025 | 7th | 15/8 | 90% | 0% | -0.90 |
| 12/05/2025 | 5th | 6/4 | 92% | 43% | -0.49 |
| 02/07/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 75% | +0.38 |
| 18/08/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 04/09/2025 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 88% | -0.03 |
| 25/09/2025 | 8th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 16/10/2025 | 7th | 7/2 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 16/06/2026 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |