12
Grand Illusion
5yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 82
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 8 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m
#8
Rank
Odds
6/5
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 2.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-05 | Hawthorne | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-21 | Hawthorne | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-11 | Hawthorne | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-24 | Hawthorne | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-07 | Hawthorne | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-30 | Hawthorne | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 15
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength59%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 15. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/09/2025 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 21/09/2025 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 89% | +0.36 |
| 09/10/2025 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 30/10/2025 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 07/05/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 33% | -0.46 |
| 24/05/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 40% | -0.46 |
| 11/06/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 21/06/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 80% | -0.09 |
| 05/07/2026 | 2nd | 6/5 | 94% | 67% | -0.27 |