15
Moogie Son
7yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 96
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 8 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
6/5
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength5%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-19 | Hawthorne | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-13 | Hawthorne | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Hawthorne | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-14 | Hawthorne | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-03-16 | Fair Grounds | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-16 | Fair Grounds | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 15
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength82%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 15. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/09/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 29% | +0.13 |
| 19/12/2025 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 09/01/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 20% | -0.27 |
| 16/02/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 16/03/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 89% | +0.18 |
| 14/05/2026 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 83% | -0.09 |
| 31/05/2026 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 13/07/2026 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 50% | -0.39 |
| 19/07/2026 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |