11
Summer Lover
7yo Horse · 8-10 · OR 94
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 8 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m
#14
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#14
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength2%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.9
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-06 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-10 | Lone Star | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-22 | Sam Houston Race Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-02-17 | Turf Paradise | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-01-28 | Turf Paradise | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 15
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength31%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 12th of 15.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/11/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 57% | +0.10 |
| 09/12/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 43% | -0.05 |
| 12/01/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 89% | +0.63 |
| 28/01/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 17/02/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 22/03/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 10/05/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 43% | -0.43 |
| 09/06/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 25% | -0.01 |
| 06/07/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 71% | +0.56 |