6
Vaccinator
5yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 89
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 8 - Starter Optional Claiming · 1m
#11
Rank
Odds
40/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-07 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-06-09 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-18 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-06 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-04-21 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-11-13 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 15
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength10%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 13th of 15. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/08/2025 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 17/09/2025 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 67% | -0.04 |
| 22/10/2025 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 63% | -0.22 |
| 13/11/2025 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 71% | -0.14 |
| 21/04/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 40% | -0.34 |
| 06/05/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 83% | +0.04 |
| 18/05/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |
| 09/06/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 07/07/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |