Frontier Justice
3yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 93
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 9 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 5f
#12
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 6.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-09 | Ellis Park | ? | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2026-06-11 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-05-17 | Churchill Downs | ? | 11th | 10th | +1 |
| 2026-04-17 | Keeneland | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-03-13 | Turfway Park | ? | 1st | 5th | −3 |
| 2025-11-30 | Churchill Downs | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/08/2025 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 25% | -0.22 |
| 12/09/2025 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 12/10/2025 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 30/11/2025 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 13/03/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 17/04/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 17/05/2026 | 11th | 50/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 11/06/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 09/07/2026 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 11% | -0.26 |