10
Goldwyn
4yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 100
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 9 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 5f
#4
Rank
Odds
2/5
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength24%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-24 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-04 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-05-01 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-11-13 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-29 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-10-09 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 12
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength48%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/06/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 18/08/2025 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 63% | -0.03 |
| 09/09/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 09/10/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 29/10/2025 | 9th | 3/1 | 84% | 27% | -0.57 |
| 13/11/2025 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 71% | -0.13 |
| 01/05/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 04/06/2026 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 24/06/2026 | 9th | 2/5 | 98% | 0% | -0.98 |