Monsieur Candy
5yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 106
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 9 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 5f
#3
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
12%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 2.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-04 | Hawthorne | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-14 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-21 | Fair Grounds | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-02-21 | Fair Grounds | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-12-18 | Fair Grounds | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-17 | Keeneland | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 1st of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/04/2025 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 56% | -0.18 |
| 19/07/2025 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 71% | -0.15 |
| 29/08/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 17/10/2025 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 78% | +0.17 |
| 18/12/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 75% | -0.04 |
| 21/02/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 83% | +0.01 |
| 21/03/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 82% | +0.03 |
| 14/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 71% | -0.17 |
| 04/06/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |