12

Trust Yourself

2yo Colt · 9-4 · OR 61

Kempton · Try Unibet's New Improved Acca Boosts Nursery · 6f

#4

Rank

Odds

50/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Showed a bit more when sixth of 8 at Windsor but needs to take another step forward on nursery bow (has since had a breathing operation).

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move2
Strength73%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.6 /10 (raw 9.0)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 6
Class gap: +2.0
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Ascot 09/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR - · 6f Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS9/0534 @ Nottingham 03/06/2026 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR - · 6f18y Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS3/0645 @ Windsor 27/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR - · 5f21y Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS27/065projClass-projected finish: 12th of 12
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-27Windsor56th5th+1
2026-06-03Nottingham411th9th+2
2026-05-09Ascot310th6th+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/053/0627/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 12
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength41%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/05/202610th50/10%0%0.00
03/06/202611th22/10%9%+0.09
27/06/20266th50/10%29%+0.29