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Purple Moon

4yo Gelding · 10-6

Kempton · Becky Burke Memorial Novice Stakes (GBB/GBBPlus Race) (Div 1) · 1m 2f 219y

#6

Rank

Odds

80/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#6

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Ribchester gelding who left debut form well behind to win 17-runner maiden at Gowran (9.6f, soft, 80/1) in April, suited by increase in trip. Sold from P. O'Rourke's yard for 65,000 gns and open to further improvement.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲5
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.

Class-adjusted form 13.5 /10 (raw 7.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today: 3
Class gap: -5.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Curragh 15/03/2026 · Pos 14th of 23 · OR - · 1m Hvy 14715/03C8C8 @ Gowran Park 09/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 17 · OR - · 1m1f130y Sft 1359/04C8projClass-projected finish: 1st of 5
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-04-09Gowran Park?1st7th−5
2026-03-15Curragh?14th20th−5

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today15/039/04
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 12
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
15/03/202614th50/10%41%+0.41
09/04/20261st80/10%100%+1.00