3
Captain Fox
3yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 79
Kempton · Unibet Supporting Safer Gambling Handicap · 7f
#5
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-09 | Newbury | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-07 | Southwell | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-02-28 | Lingfield | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-09-26 | Newmarket | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-09-04 | Lingfield | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-06-25 | Kempton | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 8
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength21%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/06/2025 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 56% | -0.08 |
| 04/09/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 90% | +0.02 |
| 26/09/2025 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 71% | +0.08 |
| 28/02/2026 | 1st | 1/2 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 07/04/2026 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 17% | -0.65 |
| 09/07/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 64% | +0.48 |