7
Victory Ace
3yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 75
Kempton · Unibet Supporting Safer Gambling Handicap · 7f
#2
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
16%
Rank
#2
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength36%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.2
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-25 | Newcastle | 4 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Newcastle | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Musselburgh | 2 | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-05-06 | Kempton | 5 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-04-14 | Lingfield | 5 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-12-05 | Newcastle | 5 | 8th | 9th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 8
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength78%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08/2025 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 38% | -0.20 |
| 04/09/2025 | 7th | 7/2 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |
| 05/12/2025 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 14/04/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 06/05/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 88% | +0.24 |
| 06/06/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 17% | -0.41 |
| 26/06/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 69% | +0.17 |
| 25/07/2026 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |