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7

Desert Belle

3yo Filly · 9-2 · OR 67

Kempton · Unibet More Extra Place Races Handicap · 1m 7f 218y

#1

Rank

Odds

11/4

Win Prob

90%

Place Prob

64%

Rank

#1

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Southwell novice winner in the spring who has improved gradually in defeat tackling handicaps, keeping on when second of 9 at Southwell (1¾m) 9 days ago. Cheekpieces go on now stamina is tested further and she's very much of interest.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength50%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 2.3)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Lingfield 20/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 1m1y Std 12320/0354 @ Southwell 05/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR - · 1m4f14y Std 114 · HIGHER CLASS5/0445 @ Wolverhampton 18/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 69 · 1m4f51y Std 121 · beat its mark18/05/2026 · OR 69 par18/055OR 694 @ Kempton 10/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 68 · 1m3f219y Sta 116 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/06/2026 · OR 68 par10/064OR 685 @ Wolverhampton 14/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 67 · 1m4f51y Std 123 · beat its mark14/07/2026 · OR 67 par14/075OR 675 @ Southwell 27/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 67 · 1m6f21y Std 129 · beat its mark27/07/2026 · OR 67 par27/075OR 67projClass-projected finish: 1st of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-27Southwell52nd2nd0
2026-07-14Wolverhampton52nd2nd0
2026-06-10Kempton43rd2nd+1
2026-05-18Wolverhampton54th4th0
2026-04-05Southwell41st0th+1
2026-03-20Lingfield52nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/035/0418/0510/0614/0727/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength89%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/03/20262nd10/1195%86%-0.10
05/04/20261st6/492%100%+0.08
18/05/20264th6/492%25%-0.67
10/06/20263rd8/158%75%+0.17
14/07/20262nd5/287%88%+0.01
27/07/20262nd11/486%88%+0.02