8

Individualiste

8yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 53

Kempton · Unibet More Extra Place Races Handicap · 1m 7f 218y

#8

Rank

Odds

80/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

Timeform

Commentary

Lost his way for Gavin Cromwell and has offered little either over hurdles or on Flat since joining Ben Lund, again beaten a long way when fourth at Wolverhampton 38 days ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move
Strength32%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.6 /10 (raw 4.8)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C5.6
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 3

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Cheltenham 25/10/2024 · Pos 16th of 18 · OR 109 · 3m1f Gd 152 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark25/10/2024 · OR 109 par25/103OR 109BHA109 @ Gowran Park 09/11/2024 · Pos 4th of 16 · OR 109 · 2m4f Goo 166 · below its mark09/11/2024 · OR 109 parBHA109 @ Thurles 29/11/2024 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 109 · 3m1f15y Gd 166 · beat its mark29/11/2024 · OR 109 par29/11109OR 109BHA111 @ Navan 15/12/2024 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 111 · 2m4f120y Yie 163 · beat its mark15/12/2024 · OR 111 parC8 @ Naas 26/01/2025 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 121 · 2m4f29y Sft 157 · below its mark26/01/2025 · OR 121 par26/01C8OR 121BHA120 @ Navan 14/12/2025 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 120 · 2m Sft 166 · below its mark14/12/2025 · OR 120 par3 @ Salisbury 14/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 70 · 1m6f44y Goo 117 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark14/05/2026 · OR 70 par14/053OR 705 @ Kempton 10/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 63 · 1m7f218y Sta 131 · below its mark10/06/2026 · OR 63 par6 @ Wolverhampton 28/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 57 · 2m120y Std 132 · beat its mark28/06/2026 · OR 57 par28/066OR 57projClass-projected finish: 8th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-28Wolverhampton64th5th1
2026-06-10Kempton58th8th0
2026-05-14Salisbury39th7th+2
2026-05-05Hereford4+1
2026-03-28Uttoxeter4+1
2026-01-18ThurlesBHA1197

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today25/1015/1214/0528/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 8
OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend
Strength31%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 8. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
25/10/202416th7/163%12%-0.51
09/11/20244th22/10%80%+0.80
29/11/20241st2/189%100%+0.11
15/12/20241st10/1195%100%+0.05
26/01/20254th6/168%70%+0.02
14/12/20259th28/10%27%+0.27
14/05/20269th200/10%0%0.00
10/06/20268th100/10%0%0.00
28/06/20264th80/10%57%+0.57