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Tuba

5yo Gelding · 10-2 · OR 69

Kempton · Unibet More Extra Place Races Handicap · 1m 7f 218y

#4

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

8%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Landed a brace of staying handicaps at Wolverhampton in the spring and continued good work back over hurdles, bringing up the hat-trick at Fakenham (3m) in May. Asked a sterner question when fourth at Market Rasen (21f) on latest run in June and fancied to be competitive back on the level.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength41%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Wolverhampton 22/12/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 55 · 2m120y Std 135 · beat its mark22/12/2025 · OR 55 par22/126OR 556 @ Lingfield 07/01/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 58 · 1m7f169y Std 134 · beat its mark07/01/2026 · OR 58 par6 @ Southwell 23/01/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 59 · 2m102y Std 137 · beat its mark23/01/2026 · OR 59 par23/016OR 596 @ Chelmsford City 08/02/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 60 · 1m6f Std 138 · beat its mark08/02/2026 · OR 60 par5 @ Wolverhampton 10/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 60 · 2m120y Std 133 · beat its mark10/03/2026 · OR 60 par10/035OR 606 @ Wolverhampton 31/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 61 · 1m5f219y Std 136 · beat its mark31/03/2026 · OR 61 par6 @ Wolverhampton 11/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 65 · 1m5f219y Std 135 · beat its mark11/05/2026 · OR 65 par11/056OR 655 @ Fakenham 31/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 92 · 2m7f95y Goo 160 · beat its mark31/05/2026 · OR 92 par5 @ Market Rasen 19/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 100 · 2m4f139y Gd 168 · below its mark19/06/2026 · OR 100 par19/065OR 100projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-06-19Market Rasen54th4th0
2026-05-31Fakenham51st1st0
2026-05-11Wolverhampton61st2nd−1
2026-03-31Wolverhampton61st2nd−1
2026-03-10Wolverhampton52nd2nd0
2026-02-08Chelmsford City65th6th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/128/0211/0519/06
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 8
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength66%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 8.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/12/20251st3/184%100%+0.16
07/01/20263rd7/282%78%-0.04
23/01/20262nd4/179%88%+0.09
08/02/20265th6/594%33%-0.60
10/03/20262nd2/189%75%-0.14
31/03/20261st2/189%100%+0.11
11/05/20261st11/486%100%+0.14
31/05/20261st5/696%100%+0.04
19/06/20264th7/163%67%+0.04