6
Avignon
6yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 64
Kenilworth · Lucky Fish Lightning Roulette Class 5 · 5f 212y
#2
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
17%
Place Prob
24%
Rank
#2
★★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength49%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.9
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-07 | Durbanville | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Kenilworth | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-19 | Kenilworth | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Kenilworth | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-25 | Durbanville | 5 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-02-25 | Kenilworth | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 8
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength92%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/12/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |
| 21/01/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |
| 14/02/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 67% | -0.02 |
| 25/02/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 25/03/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 18/04/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 19/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 91% | +0.38 |
| 16/06/2026 | 2nd | 17/2 | 55% | 88% | +0.32 |
| 07/07/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 63% | -0.09 |