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3

Cantona

4yo Filly · 9-13 · OR 61

Kenilworth · Lucky Fish Lightning Roulette Class 5 · 5f 212y

#5

Rank

Odds

9/2

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

7%

Rank

#5

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Course winner. Winner here in February. 5/1, fifth of 6 in handicap at Durbanville (6.2f, good). Off 140 days. Must improve.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲1
Strength23%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 4.8)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 5
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Kenilworth 13/01/2026 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR - · 5f212y Gd 13213/01C8C8 @ Kenilworth 04/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR - · 4f214y Gd 1274/02C84 @ Kenilworth 22/02/2026 · Pos 11th of 13 · OR - · 5f212y Gd 121 · HIGHER CLASS22/0244 @ Durbanville 18/03/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR - · 6f47y Gd 123 · HIGHER CLASS18/034projClass-projected finish: 5th of 8
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-03-18Durbanville45th4th+1
2026-02-22Kenilworth411th10th+1
2026-02-04Kenilworth?1st5th−3
2026-01-13Kenilworth?2nd6th−3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/014/0222/0218/03
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 8
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

What the projection says

Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 7th of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/01/20262nd50/10%92%+0.92
04/02/20261st3/184%100%+0.16
22/02/202611th17/255%17%-0.39
18/03/20265th9/276%20%-0.56