IvyArcIvyArc
4

Vercicat

3yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 84

Kenilworth · Lucky Fish Lightning Roulette Class 5 · 5f 212y

#1

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

77%

Place Prob

52%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

C&D winner. Winner here in April. 9/2, bit below form 3¾ lengths fifth of 12 to Prince of Tibet in handicap at this C&D (good to soft) 78 days ago. Merits consideration.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲2
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.

Class-adjusted form 7.9 /10 (raw 5.0)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C7.4
Today: 5
Class gap: -2.4
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Kenilworth 06/12/2025 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR - · 4f214y Gd 1326/12C8C8 @ Kenilworth 13/01/2026 · Pos 13th of 13 · OR - · 4f214y Gd 13213/01C8C8 @ Kenilworth 06/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR - · 5f212y Gd 1326/04C8C8 @ Kenilworth 27/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR - · 5f212y GS 12727/04C85 @ Kenilworth 19/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR - · 5f212y GS 12819/055projClass-projected finish: 4th of 8
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-05-19Kenilworth55th5th0
2026-04-27Kenilworth?1st5th−3
2026-04-06Kenilworth?2nd6th−3
2026-01-13Kenilworth?13th17th−3
2025-12-06Kenilworth?4th8th−3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/1213/016/0427/0419/05
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/12/20254th11/271%40%-0.31
13/01/202613th13/266%0%-0.66
06/04/20262nd10/147%88%+0.40
27/04/20261st3/184%100%+0.16
19/05/20265th7/282%64%-0.18