1
Alhama River
3yo Colt · 8-13
La Teste De Buch · Prix Theault Stakes · 7f 209y
#1
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
50%
Place Prob
50%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 2.0)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-29 | Dax | 2 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-11 | Bordeaux Le Bouscat | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2025-07-09 | Saint-Cloud | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 4
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength29%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 4. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07/2025 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 90% | +0.64 |
| 11/04/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 29/06/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 71% | -0.08 |