2
New Connection
3yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 95
La Teste De Buch · Prix Theault Stakes · 7f 209y
#3
Rank
Odds
66/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 11.8 /10 (raw 9.5)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.9
Today: 2
Class gap: -1.9
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-18 | Royal Ascot | 2 | 29th | 29th | 0 |
| 2026-04-23 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-03-06 | Fontainebleau | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-02-19 | Chantilly | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 4
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength0%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 4. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/02/2026 | 4th | 11/10 | 94% | 67% | -0.28 |
| 06/03/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 23/04/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |
| 18/06/2026 | 29th | 66/1 | 0% | 3% | +0.03 |