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6

Lightning Bonnie

3yo Filly · 8-5

La Teste De Buch · Prix Hotel Des Ventes Du Bassin D'arcachon (jg Larrieu) Handicap · 1m 208y

#7

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 7.7 /10 (raw 7.7)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.1
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Saint-Cloud 09/11/2025 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR - · 7f100y Sft 1289/11C5C5 @ Compiegne 27/03/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR - · 7f209y Sft 12827/03C5C5 @ Bordeaux Le Bouscat 11/04/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR - · 7f209y GS 12811/04C5C0 @ La Teste De Buch 15/05/2026 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR - · 1m1f207y GS 12315/05C?3 @ La Teste De Buch 26/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR - · 1m208y Gd 12026/063C0 @ La Teste De Buch 15/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR - · 1m1f207y 12115/07C?projClass-projected finish: 7th of 7
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-15La Teste De Buch?5th5th0
2026-06-26La Teste De Buch36th6th0
2026-05-15La Teste De Buch?12th12th0
2026-04-11Bordeaux Le Bouscat?9th9th0
2026-03-27Compiegne?9th9th0
2025-11-09Saint-Cloud?5th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/1127/0311/0415/0526/0615/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 7
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength60%

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/11/20255th16/116%50%+0.34
27/03/20269th40/10%11%+0.11
11/04/20269th50/10%27%+0.27
15/05/202612th40/10%0%0.00
26/06/20266th20/10%50%+0.50
15/07/20265th8/158%43%-0.15