7
Albertinelli
7yo Gelding · 8-12
La Teste De Buch · Prix Du Chateau Lacroix De Mouchet - Montagne Saint Emilion Handicap · 5f 102y
#1
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
85%
Place Prob
68%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength37%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 6.6)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-23 | Bordeaux Le Bouscat | 4 | 15th | 15th | 0 |
| 2026-05-12 | Chantilly | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-17 | Fontainebleau | 3 | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-02-28 | Fontainebleau | 3 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2025-11-30 | Toulouse | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2025-11-20 | Saint-Cloud | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 11
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength49%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 4th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/09/2025 | 4th | 17/2 | 55% | 70% | +0.15 |
| 02/10/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 93% | +0.19 |
| 03/11/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 93% | +0.14 |
| 20/11/2025 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 71% | -0.02 |
| 30/11/2025 | 11th | 10/3 | 82% | 29% | -0.54 |
| 28/02/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 92% | +0.29 |
| 17/03/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 12/05/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 86% | +0.23 |
| 23/05/2026 | 15th | 11/2 | 71% | 7% | -0.64 |