9
Instruit
9yo Gelding · 8-9
La Teste De Buch · Prix Du Chateau Lacroix De Mouchet - Montagne Saint Emilion Handicap · 5f 102y
#2
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
15%
Place Prob
29%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength34%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 7.5)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | Vichy | 4 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-03 | Tarbes | 4 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Salon-De-Provence | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Salon-De-Provence | 3 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-03-23 | Mont De Marsan | 4 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-03-04 | Marseille | 3 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 11
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength84%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/08/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 83% | +0.04 |
| 10/09/2025 | 13th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 30/01/2026 | 14th | 33/1 | 0% | 7% | +0.07 |
| 04/03/2026 | 9th | 66/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 23/03/2026 | 8th | 22/1 | 0% | 53% | +0.53 |
| 25/05/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 43% | -0.18 |
| 17/06/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 88% | +0.22 |
| 03/07/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 71% | -0.08 |
| 24/07/2026 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 58% | -0.23 |