3
Ismael Paint
8yo Gelding · 9-5
La Teste De Buch · Prix Du Chateau Lacroix De Mouchet - Montagne Saint Emilion Handicap · 5f 102y
#6
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength34%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 8.3 /10 (raw 6.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.6
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | Vichy | 4 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-05 | Saint-Cloud | 3 | 12th | 11th | +1 |
| 2026-06-15 | Bordeaux Le Bouscat | 4 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Le Croise-Laroche | 4 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-12 | Chantilly | ? | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2026-04-14 | Chantilly | 3 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 11
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength83%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/02/2026 | 11th | 22/1 | 0% | 23% | +0.23 |
| 06/03/2026 | 11th | 20/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 17/03/2026 | 13th | 28/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 14/04/2026 | 10th | 16/1 | 16% | 40% | +0.24 |
| 12/05/2026 | 14th | 10/1 | 47% | 7% | -0.40 |
| 17/05/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 15/06/2026 | 4th | 11/1 | 42% | 70% | +0.28 |
| 05/07/2026 | 12th | 40/1 | 0% | 21% | +0.21 |
| 24/07/2026 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 57% | -0.14 |