11
Paint Chop
4yo Gelding · 8-8
La Teste De Buch · Prix Du Chateau Lacroix De Mouchet - Montagne Saint Emilion Handicap · 5f 102y
#11
Rank
Odds
40/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 8.3 /10 (raw 7.1)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.4
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | La Teste De Buch | 4 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2025-09-06 | La Teste De Buch | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2025-08-07 | Deauville | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2025-07-19 | La Teste De Buch | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-06-11 | Bordeaux Le Bouscat | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-05-15 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 11
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength36%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/02/2025 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 71% | +0.00 |
| 18/03/2025 | 3rd | 18/1 | 5% | 75% | +0.70 |
| 12/04/2025 | 6th | 9/4 | 88% | 44% | -0.44 |
| 15/05/2025 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 11/06/2025 | 10th | 14/1 | 26% | 10% | -0.16 |
| 19/07/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 07/08/2025 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 06/09/2025 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 15/07/2026 | 11th | 40/1 | 0% | 23% | +0.23 |