4
Revanche
5yo Filly · 9-2
La Teste De Buch · Prix Du Chateau Lacroix De Mouchet - Montagne Saint Emilion Handicap · 5f 102y
#4
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength32%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 8.5 /10 (raw 7.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 4
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | Vichy | 4 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Dieppe | 3 | 11th | 10th | +1 |
| 2026-06-12 | Saint-Cloud | 3 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-05-26 | Evreux | 4 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Le Croise-Laroche | 4 | 14th | 14th | 0 |
| 2025-10-28 | Chantilly | ? | 11th | 12th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 11
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength58%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09/2025 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 46% | -0.01 |
| 02/10/2025 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 17/10/2025 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 93% | +0.45 |
| 28/10/2025 | 11th | 5/1 | 74% | 9% | -0.65 |
| 17/05/2026 | 14th | 20/1 | 0% | 7% | +0.07 |
| 26/05/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 91% | +0.91 |
| 12/06/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 58% | +0.11 |
| 23/06/2026 | 11th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 24/07/2026 | 9th | 14/1 | 26% | 43% | +0.17 |